As the finance industry and consumers closely watch the market, Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan Chase, said that a recession is “likely.” After an S&P 500 surge of 9.52% on April 9, the largest single-day gain since 2008, April 10 saw a 3.46% loss.
Investors are closely watching the progression of President Donald Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs. The previous week, Trump announced a 90-day pause on the proposed tariffs. Investors experienced short-term relief as analysts weighed in on a possible recession.
JP Morgan Chase CEO Talks Recession
When Dimon was asked about his expectations for a recession, he stated, “Probably that’s a likely outcome.” He also said, “Trade deals are very large and very complex. They can’t be done overnight, but you have to have teams working on them to get them right.”
While taking a calm view, Dimon warned that things “could get worse if we don’t make some progress here” and indicated he would defer to his economists at this time. He further stated, “I hear it from just everybody now, ‘I’m going to cut back a little bit, I’m gonna wait, see what happens.’ That is kind of recessionary talk.”
Talking Tariffs and Recession
The day after Trump announced a 104% levy on Chinese imports, China responded with an 84% tariff. The White House continues to express that it is open to negotiations with China and other countries. Though Dimon said the tariffs were “beyond what people expected,” he is confident in Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s negotiation abilities.
Dimon believes the negotiation process could “cause a little inflation, slow down growth.” However, he opined, “It is perfectly reasonable for someone to say that trade was unfair.” He added that there were unfair trade practices, and he thinks they have a misunderstanding of the value-added tax. He further thinks a better understanding of this would make negotiating easier.
The Uncertainty Continues
In the past week, hedge fund managers like Bill Ackman, Cathie Wood, and Stanley Druckenmiller have spoken about Trump’s tariffs. The bottom line is that finance experts are calling for negotiations and watching the time clock for a possible recession.
Dimon also discussed other factors, such as Delta Air Lines’ removal of guidance for 2025, which was announced on April 9, along with tremendous moves in asset prices, swap prices, and Treasury prices. He stated that these things will also affect stock prices, increasing uncertainty among consumers, investors, and the finance industry. With all these recent developments in mind, he said, “So, it’s not over yet.”
