Presidential candidates, former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, are crisscrossing the country trying to reach the magical number of 270 electoral college votes (ECV’s) needed to secure the presidency. It’s a long, arduous, expensive journey, and candidates are tired and usually without a voice by the end of the cycle.
But are they really traversing the whole nation? Or are they choosing to stop in just 12-15 states that could decide the election? We’ll examine all the states to see if they are really in play and also the must-win states for each candidate.
Also, I will discuss the history and the mechanisms of the Electoral College in an upcoming article.
Let’s Get These States Out of the Way
First, we will cover the states that are not in play and could be ceded to each candidate before the election.
For Mr. Trump, those states are:
Alabama, Alaska. Arkansas, Florida, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska (I’ll explain later), North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, and Wyoming.
Pigs would fly first before Ms. Harris would win any of these states in this election year.
And These States
The Harris States are as follows:
California, Colorado, Connecticut, District of Columbia (not a state, but you get the drift), Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine (see Nebraska), Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia, Washington.
The only way that Mr. Trump is setting foot in any of these states is for money or McDonalds.
Preliminary Scorecard
Mr. Trump: 24 States = 219 Electoral College Votes
Ms. Harris: 19 States(+DC) = 225 Electoral College
Clearly, both candidates have some work to do between now and election day.
Sidebar #1
Maine and Nebraska award electoral votes to the state-wide winner and additional electoral votes to the winners of each congressional district.
Sidebar #2
Some of my Republican friends admonish me and try to convince me that Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Virginia should also be considered swing states. My Democratic friends plead with me and try to persuade me that Florida and Ohio are still in play for Ms. Harris.
Bottom line: To both of these factions, I say, not this year. Let’s move on.
What’s Left of the Electoral College Vote
Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin-the infamous “Swing States.”
From here, we apportion states based on historical trends and polling data. This is obviously not a perfect science, as demonstrated in 2016 when Hillary Clinton failed to win any of the blue wall states (Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin). And polling for the last few presidential election cycles has been disappointing at best. Also, there is the phenomenon of a presidential candidate persuading a group of previous non-voters to go to the polls to catapult their campaigns over the top. Think Barack Obama in 2008 and Donald Trump in 2016. So we are left with our best estimates.
Historically, Arizona and Georgia have voted Republican in most past presidential elections, so we will add those (27 ECV’s) to Mr. Trump’s Column. Michigan and a trending Nevada are considered leaning Democratic for our proposes, so tally two more states (21 ECV’s) for Ms. Harris. North Carolina is an exciting state this election cycle. For several years now, the Democrats believed that North Carolina was a southern state that could become reliably blue.
Heretofore, it has not been the case, but the Republican nominee for Governor this year is the Trump-backed Mark Robinson. Mr. Robinson has associated himself with a porn website and expressed support for slavery and Adolf Hitler. In some polls, he is running a double-digit deficit to Josh Stein, the current Attorney General of the State and the Democratic Gubernatorial candidate.
The polls say that Mr. Trump is running ahead of Robinson among voters, so even though this could flip, North Carolina historically votes Republican in presidential elections, so it goes 16 (ECV’s) in the Trump column.
Wisconsin is a very split state, with the rural areas being right-wing enclaves and the cities being of a more liberal persuasion. It is not written in stone, but I will add Wisconsin to Ms. Harris’ column (10 ECV’s) because of the most recent polling data and historical precedence.
And the Winner is…
When all is said and done, I believe that the electoral college vote will once again be decided by the winner of the Keystone State, Pennsylvania. Definitely one of the most challenging states to call. Historically, it leans Democratic in national elections, but Mr. Trump did steal this state from Ms. Clinton in 2016. But Democratic Incumbent Senator Bob Casey is running ahead of his Republican opponent businessman David McCormick.
Ms. Harris must win Pennsylvania to have her best shot at winning the election. Balancing all these factors, if she wins Pennslyvania’s 19 electoral college votes in the 2024 Presidential election, she would win the election with 275 electoral college votes to Mr. Trump’s 262. If Mr. Trump takes Pennsylvania in this scenario, he would win the electoral college vote 281-256
There, that wasn’t so difficult was it?
