The Rising Price of Global Conflict: Nuclear Deadlock and Maritime Defiance
Sanctions were levied as conflict continued against several entities that were shown to have given support to Iran’s war with the United States, according to the United States Treasury Department and the Department of State. These efforts were undertaken to stifle Iran’s military programs by disrupting the flow of support coming in. The United States responded recently to drone and missile strikes with retaliatory fire on facilities that made the attacks, later disabling tankers entering Iranian ports.
Iran’s counterproposal was swiftly rejected, despite Iran offering concessions to dilute and conditionally transfer highly enriched uranium. This may be due to the conditional recall clause hinging on a 30-day negotiation window. Iran made clear threats about vessels within the Strait; any country sanctioning Iran would not have safe passage through the waterway.
A point of concern for all parties involved remains the nuclear material within Iran’s borders, with Israel and the United States wanting it removed and Iran fearful of a physical attempt at the removal of the uranium.
Standing Firm: Uranium Or Nothing
Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Baghiyatollah Sociocultural Headquarters Commander Major General Mohammad Ali Jafari said Iran would not enter negotiations until the United States accepted Iran’s terms on May 11. Iran’s terms require a complete end to the war, removal of sanctions, release of Iran’s frozen assets, with compensation for war-related damages, and recognizing Iran’s sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported that Jafari spent many years in the IRGC; he previously served as IRGC commander from 2007 to 2019.
Through reports from the New York Times, the ISW noted, IRGC officials alongside Jafari and current IRGC Commander Major General Ahmad Vahidi pushed for Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei’s appointment after the death of Ali Khamenei.
The ISW cited Tasnim News’ Telegram post from May 10, 2026; the agency rejected reports from the Wall Street Journal, claiming its content, especially Iranian nuclear materials, was not based on reality. Defa Press reported that the head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, Mohammad Eslami, told the Iranian Parliamentary National Security and Foreign Policy Commission members that nuclear technology and enrichment were not negotiable on May 11, 2026. The commission members stressed that it was imperative to protect Iran’s nuclear facilities, preserve the nuclear achievements, and defend Iranian nuclear rights.
A New Strait: Vessel Information Declaration Fulfilled
Through data available by subscription with Starboard Maritime Data, the ISW cited that 21 vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz. Of the 21 ships along the waterway, eight used the Iranian-approved route, with Tasnim News confirming several ships and tankers had fulfilled the Vessel Information Declaration on May 11, 2026. Bloomberg reporting from the ISW showed a tanker carrying liquified natural gas from Qatar turned from the Strait after approaching the Iranian-controlled area. IRGC-affiliated media had claimed Iran prevented the ship from transiting.
Conflict on the Strait: Seeking Alternatives
On May 11, 2026, President Donald Trump told Fox News he was considering renewing Project Freedom, though not just a guidance mission, but also an offensive operation against Iran. According to ISW’s reporting of Reuters, which cited shipping data firms and industry sources, the UAE began turning off vessels’ automatic identification systems (AIS) and conducting ship-to-ship transfers to avoid Iranian monitoring. These methods were used by the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) in April 2026 to export 6 million barrels of crude oil from the UAE, including from Fujairah Port, which is just outside the Persian Gulf.
The United States Treasury Department sanctioned three Iranians affiliated with the illicit oil sales from Iran to the People’s Republic of China: IRGC Shahid Purja’fari Oil Headquarters chief Ahmad Mohammadi Zadeh, finance chief Samad Fathi Salami, and commercial chief Mohammadreza Ashrafi Ghehi. Reports from the ISW, Lithuania’s Defense Council proposed to Parliament advocating for 40 soldiers and personnel to aid the United States mission on May 11.
Preparations Made: First-Person View Drones
ISW’s reporting covered a Defa Press Telegram claiming the Iranian Defense and Armed Forces Logistics Ministry and Artesh Self-Sufficiency Jihad Organizations supplied the Artesh Ground Forces with 10,000 first-person view (FPV) drones, along with related ammunition, in recent months. In a Special Report from the Alma Research and Education Center, noted by the ISW as an Israeli research organization, most fiber-optic FPV drones cost Hezbollah between $300 and $400 USD. In contrast, radio-controlled FPV drones cost over $1,000. The fiber-optic FPV drones don’t transmit a signal, leading to them being resistant to jamming, a valuable tool that can’t be disrupted.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have been struggling to disrupt Hezbollah’s FPV, with one military member informing via Telegram that they have taken down less than 10 of the roughly 100 FPV drone operators throughout the conflict on May 11, 2026. The ISW cited the Telegram post, which confirmed that an Iron Dome battery was struck by a Hezbollah drone; the IDF is currently investigating the situation. IDF sources revealed that ground forces are prepping for further operations, should they get approval to expand.
Funding And Trade: Hidden Attack Revealed
According to Wand News’ summary of Associated Press (AP) reporting covering May 12, 2026, President Donald Trump will be in Beijing for a summit with Xi Jinping on Wednesday. The President’s focus is on establishing the Board of Trade initiative, addressing differences, and finding solutions to trade conflicts. President Donald Trump expressed optimism over the United States future relations with China, and wants to review an $11 billion weapons package and discuss Taiwan.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth was heavily questioned over President Donald Trump’s diminishing weapon stockpiles, the allies’ refusal to take part in the conflict, and the rising costs of the conflict. Pentagon Comptroller Jay Hurst confirmed expenditures rose from $25 billion two weeks ago to $29 billion. Hegseth assured during the hearing that the military has sufficient missile defense systems and weapons, with the $29 billion cost mostly attributed to repair and munitions replacement.
Furthermore, Kuwait said on May 12, 2026, that Iran launched an attack on an island where China is assisting in building a port in the Gulf Arab nation earlier this month. The attack was said to be a team of six paramilitary Revolutionary Guard to infiltrate Bubiyan Island with hostile intentions. Four were captured, with two escaping detainment by Kuwait; Iran did not acknowledge the allegations. Ongoing attacks could reignite warfare while ceasefire negotiations are at a standstill.
