UAE Threatened: Negotiations Approach The Strait – Turning Point With the United States And Iran
As Project Freedom sought to alleviate some of the energy supply strain by creating a safe path through the Strait of Hormuz, the world watched with trepidation. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) saw attacks launched at it as Iran sent ballistic and cruise missiles, as well as drone attacks. The Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, condemned the attacks against the UAE early Tuesday morning on May 5, 2026.
As the Strait began looking like the beginnings of renewed war efforts, the United States confirmed that while these attacks were launched, they were considered soft and not a breach of the ceasefire. Iranian NourNews cited the UAE’s use of the Israeli air defense systems as evidence that the UAE was aligned with the United States and Israel, saying that they were a pawn of Israel.
Attacks Against the UAE: Military Installations Threatened
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported that on May 5, 2026, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian was angry over Vahidi’s attacks on the UAE. These steps, seen as irresponsible, were done without Pezeshkian’s knowledge. The report says Pezeshkian belongs to a group of regime officials seeking negotiations instead of reigniting military efforts, which is seen as a beneficial outcome for the Iranian economy. ISW cited a report posted on IranIntl saying Pezeshkian was seeking an emergency meeting with the Iranian Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, in an effort to stop the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) hostilities against the UAE.
While the Khatam ol Anbia Central Headquarters (KACH) spokesperson refuted claims that any missile or drone strikes were conducted by Iranian forces, Iranian Foreign Affairs Ministry Spokesperson Esmail Baghaei admitted to knowledge of Iran’s attacks in an interview with Press TV’s Unscripted_PTV hosted on May 4, 2026. The KACH spokesperson further warned the UAE about harboring the United States and Israeli forces. They stated that a response to hostilities against these bases would result in “crushing and regret-inducing response” in a Telegram post reported on by the ISW. In citing Press TV’s report on May 5, 2026, Iran has a new framework and enacted mechanisms to exercise the country’s sovereignty over the Strait.
The Strait: Fees and Mechanisms
Under Iran’s mechanism, any ship wishing to navigate the Strait will receive an email outlining the transit regulations it must follow to obtain a permit to transit the waterway. This coincides with previous reporting about transit fees that Iran had proposed to formalize Iranian control over the area. The ISW posits that the fees may be Iran’s assertion of sovereignty through imposing economic costs while obtaining leverage in negotiations. The objective of the demand to be recognized as Iran controlling the Strait can only be achieved through recognition of its claim through negotiations, the ISW reported.
Citing CNN on May 6, 2026, Israel voiced worries about economic sanctions being lifted, pushing for restrictions on Iran’s ballistic missile programs. A new audio message surfaced that the ISW found through KhabarOnline reporting from Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf: he frames the blockade, economic pressures, and media operations as attempts to undermine national cohesion. It was framed as an enemy’s effort to force a conditional surrender from Iran. The reporting by ISW saw recognition from Ghalibaf that mounting economic pressure posed a significant threat to internal stability, leading to a call for “jihadi-style” mobilization of the Basij to resolve public discontent and potential unrest caused by the ongoing war efforts.
Deal or No Deal?
Many outlets were reporting that the United States and Iran were closing in on an agreement to end the war. A Pakistani familiar with the negotiation efforts confirmed multiple proposals were circulating. According to leaks from a United States official, authorities were closing in on a one-page memorandum of understanding that could declare the war over. If true, it would open a 30-day window allowing negotiations on a more detailed agreement and would be the most significant progress since fighting broke out.
According to ISW records of the Axios release, the framework would have a moratorium on Iranian nuclear enrichment spanning 12-15 years. The agreement also notes partial sanctions relief and the release of frozen Iranian funds, alongside gradual lifting of restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz, with future steps contingent on follow-up negotiations in Islamabad or Geneva. Iranian officials posted on social media and rejected the Axios report, saying no deal has been made in response to the recent provisions from the United States.
Later, United States President Donald Trump publicly reinforced positions at odds with the Axios reporting, informing PBS that any forthcoming deal requires Iran to export the highly enriched uranium, the cessation of operations in facilities underground, with no future enrichment after a moratorium period.
Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon
Looking at the reporting from the ISW covering missed reporting from their previous May 4, through to May 6, 2026, Hezbollah claimed 20 attacks on Israeli forces between 2 p.m. on May 4 and 2 p.m. on May 5. These were the highest number of attacks the faction has claimed since the ceasefire began on April 16, 2026. In the attacks levied, they used mortars, rockets, first-person view (FPV) drones, fixed-wing drones, and anti-tank guided missiles, according to a series of 24 unique Telegram messages detailing 20 claimed attacks posted on the official Islamic Resistance channel recorded by the ISW.
The attacks claimed by Hezbollah were coming from different positions and at varying times. ISW theorized that this is to keep Israeli forces from being able to predict or counterfire the attacks. Reporting from ISW cited Lebanese outlet, L’Orient-Le Jour, that Hezbollah will use suicide bombers in an effort to distress the Israeli officers psychologically within southern Lebanon.
