Iran Oil Crisis, 64% Capacity as Gulf Areas Face Drones – Trump Pauses Strike While Senate War Powers Clash
The Gulf states, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), showed defensive posturing as drones entered their respective airspace. While the Saudi Defense Ministry intercepted three drones from Iraq, the UAE only stopped two of the three, leading to a fire breaking out. Meanwhile, as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Iranian state-led media redirected attention, the Persian Gulf Strait Authority became an actualized entity, looking to establish total Iranian control over the international Strait.
President Donald Trump held off his attack against Iran at the behest of the governments of Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. Driven by fear of Iran’s retribution for any assault against them, the three sought to pursue negotiations to quell the ongoing Gulf war.
The Institute for the Study of War cited a Financial Times report that Iran was expanding its crude storage capacity by reusing aging tankers. The use of old tankers could indicate difficulties storing oil as Iran continues to produce due to the limited capabilities of older oil tankers. Of note, Kpler, a maritime intelligence firm, has posited that Iran has approximately 42 million barrels of crude spread among tankers in the region, a 65 percent rise since hostilities began, while maintaining an additional 24 million barrels on idle vessels positioned inside the blockaded Strait.
According to ISW’s review of Kayrros assessment, an energy intelligence firm, crude oil storage in shallower waters has risen by approximately 10 million barrels, reducing space and bringing the total to 64 percent capacity, with only a few weeks of space left for extraction. The United States Treasury Department has likewise applied economic pressure by sanctioning the Amin Exchange and companies with ties to hundreds of millions in crude purchases. The Treasury Department claimed to have blocked 19 ships that had been participating in unauthorized crude purchases from Iran, while requesting allies to enforce sanctions more strictly.
89 Ships Redirected: Iran Struggles with Floating Oil Storage
As of May 19, 2026, the United States Central Command (CENTCOM) announced a total of 89 ships had been redirected, with four vessels disabled since the blockade efforts against Iranian ports began. The Iranian President, Masoud Pezeshkian, sought to establish a sustainable means of handling the war-related impacts on the economy amid warnings of potential public outcry over rising drug prices. The ISW reported that anti-Iranian regime media covered protests over wages and gasoline shortages in Zanjan City on May 19, 2026.
Some members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) may support a plan by the United States to escort ships through the international waterway as early as July if the Iranian blockade continues, according to a senior NATO official cited by Bloomberg and the ISW. A NATO diplomat said that several countries back the escort initiative and that unanimous approval is not required to move forward. Several NATO states want no direct role in the fighting, but still recognize the severe global economic risks that a prolonged closure of the Strait could have on global economic stability.
War Powers Resolution – Iran Learning Maneuvers
In Washington, the U.S. Senate advanced a war powers resolution on Tuesday, May 19, that seeks to force President Donald Trump to withdraw U.S. troops from the Iran war. The 50-47 vote was a narrow margin as the Senate’s vote count shifted, picking up a key vote after Republican Senator Bill Cassidy of Louisiana switched sides to support the anti-war measure for the first time after losing in the recent primary election. Cassidy stated on social media that the administration had left Congress in the dark regarding Operation Epic Fury, and that further congressional authorization could not be justified without structural clarity from the White House and the Pentagon.
A U.S. military official said that Iranian commanders were monitoring the aerial maneuvers of the U.S. fighter jets and bombers, the ISW reported, citing the New York Times. The official suggested that the damage to an F-35 on March 19, 2026, and the more recent downing of an F-15E and an A-10 on April 3, 2026, could indicate an unexpected level of predictability. It was proposed that Russia may have assisted in the study of aerial movements as part of its effort to support Iran in targeting the United States and allied assets during the war. The ISW assessed that the US military is likely aware and may be exploring ways to obscure fighter jets and bomber flight paths.
Hezbollah’s Ace In The Hole Against Israel
In the Israeli-Lebanon sector, the ISW’s May 19 assessment highlighted that first-person view (FPV) drones have caused the majority of Israel Defense Forces (IDF) deaths since the temporary ceasefire began on April 16. On May 19, a Hezbollah-aligned journalist emphasized that these low-cost FPV drone strikes, which have targeted highly symbolic assets like Iron Dome air defense batteries over two kilometers deep into Israeli territory, demonstrate a deliberate strategy to degrade IDF soldier morale and exploit operational vulnerabilities.
