Fighting in Lebanon Causes Memorandum of Understanding To Falter – Iranian Leverages the Strait of Hormuz
President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed a Memorandum of Understanding that addresses navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, the end of hostilities, and related political conditions. The document affirms sovereignty and territorial integrity and includes Iran’s request that Israel Defense Forces withdraw from southern Lebanon as part of its implementation. It also provides for commercial vessels to transit the strait without fees. The agreement has faced immediate strain amid continued IDF operations and Hezbollah attacks in southern Lebanon, debate inside Iran over the deal’s terms, and U.S. efforts to limit the activities of Iran‑backed militias in Iraq.
Iran and the United States met in Switzerland on June 20 to discuss how to carry out the agreement. The talks opened as fighting between Israel and Hezbollah continued and as Iran announced it was closing the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting the gap between the commitments in the MoU and the situation on the ground.
Iran Withdraws: Israel Strikes Lebanon
On June 19, 2026, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) cited reporting from Reuters, the Wall Street Journal, and the New York Times that Iranian officials withdrew from scheduled diplomatic talks, arguing that IDF strikes in Lebanon violated the Memorandum of Understanding signed by President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on June 17, 2026. The ISW also highlighted coverage from the Times of Israel and an X post by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu showing the IDF had carried out more than 80 strikes on suspected Hezbollah positions in Lebanon between June 18, 2026, and June 19, 2026.
These actions run counter to the first clause of the United States–Iran agreement, which calls for a complete ceasefire on all fronts. Iranian Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister Saeed Khatib Zadeh told Al Jazeera, cited by the ISW, that Israel must comply with the agreement and that the United States is responsible for ensuring its implementation, adding that Iran will meet its commitments if the United States meets its own. The ISW also noted Mehr News reporting in which Foreign Affairs Ministry Spokesperson Esmail Baghaei condemned Israeli operations in Lebanon and said President Donald Trump bears responsibility for stopping them.
A Telegram post from NourNews, cited by the ISW, reported that Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi told Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar on June 19 that the United States has an obligation to end hostilities on all fronts and would be accountable for any breach of the agreement. The ISW noted a June 17, 2026, Axios report quoting a senior United States official who warned that the diplomatic track could end in the coming weeks if Iran doesn’t demonstrate seriousness about nuclear concessions.
A Meeting in Switzerland: Discussion of Implementation
Mehr News, cited by the ISW, reported that Iran sent a delegation party of Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Araghchi, Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) Deputy Secretary for International Affairs Ali Bagheri Kani, Central Bank Governor Abdolnaser Hemmati, Deputy Oil Minister and National Oil Company Chairman Hamid Bord, Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister for Legal and International Affairs Kazem Gharibabadi, and Baghaei, with CBS news noting International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Grossi arrived in Switzerland on June 20, 2026, to discuss the implementation of the Memorandum of Understanding signed by Pezeshkian and President Donald Trump on June 17, 2026, with United States negotiators.
The ISW noted reports from NourNews that during the June 20, 2026, meeting, Baghaei reiterated Iran’s request to the United States to fulfill its obligation to bring an end to hostilities across all fronts. It was said that the United States has yet to implement the first clause, referencing continued strikes in Lebanon, and nuclear talks will not take place until the United States implements the clause. The ISW cited statements from Tasnim News arguing that Araghchi shouldn’t be in Switzerland because of the failure to implement the clause.
Ceasefire Strains: IDF and Hezbollah – Cross‑Border Attacks
The ISW cited corroborating reports from AP News, Reuters, CNN, and the New York Times that Israel and Hezbollah reached a ceasefire agreement on June 19, 2026. The United States, after discussion with Israel, told Iran that further escalations were off the table. The Israeli Ambassador to the United States confirmed that Israel would end military operations, but that the IDF would respond if Hezbollah attacked. According to the Reuters report, Hezbollah members confirmed the agreement to end hostile movements.
The ISW noted that Iran’s position on Lebanon is consistent with earlier statements and reporting throughout June, in which Iranian officials and media repeatedly framed Israeli withdrawal as a prerequisite for negotiations. The ISW cited a post by a Times of Israel military correspondent on June 20, 2026, saying that Netanyahu instructed the IDF to stay in the buffer zone of Lebanon to defend Israel’s border. Israeli Ambassador to the United States Michael Leiter posted to X, cited by the ISW, detailing attacks from Hezbollah over the last 24 hours that included 147 rockets, 20 drones, and nine anti-tank guided missiles at IDF positions in Lebanon.
The ISW cited a post on X announcing the death of an IDF soldier with 13 injured after a Hezbollah rocket struck near Kfar Tebnit in Lebanon. Based on posts from the military correspondent with the Times of Israel, the ISW noted that on June 20, 2026, the IDF engaged Hezbollah near Ali al Taher, and it was reported that the IDF struck over 300 targets, killing more than 100 in the past 48 hours in response to attacks on the IDF.
The ISW collected over 60 links of reported attacks posted across Telegram channels such as MTV Lebanon and Samer al-Haj Ali; while some were duplicated or showed different angles of attacks, it can be safely stated that the IDF launched between 30-40 strikes against Hezbollah targets.
Iran Tightens Control: Memorandum of Understanding Dispute
Iranian outlet Irib News, cited by the ISW, reported that the SNSC instructed ships to request passage through the international waterway to the Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) to obtain transit routes. The statement said service fees would not be collected during the 60-day negotiation period, as agreed in clause 5 of the agreement, but that PGSA authorization was required for security and safety. The PGSA website, which the ISW noted, posted a PDF of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s requirements for use of the Strait of Hormuz.
The ISW cited an X post sharing a joint statement from the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) and United States Navy-led Joint Maritime Information Center warning ships to avoid Iranian waters due to naval mines, recommending the route through Omani territorial waters as the safe path. Based on reporting from the Wall Street Journal and Reuters, the ISW noted that some ships were turned back by Iranian forces, requesting that they obtain exit permits. Tasnim News, which the ISW cited, argued on June 19, 2026, that the IDF operations in Lebanon should be grounds for closing the waterway, with negotiations canceled until Israel withdraws from Lebanon.
The ISW further noted a Fars News report that also argued for Iran to cancel talks, calling it the first step, with closing the strait being a second step until the United States makes Israel withdraw. Based on the ISW’s coverage, Press TV added that Iran could use nuclear negotiations and control of the international waters to ensure the IDF left Lebanon, unfreeze Iran’s assets, and other United States commitments. The ISW cited a CBS report on June 20, 2026, confirming that the Khatam ol Anbia Central Headquarters and IRGC Navy announced the closure of the international waterway until Israel ceases military actions in Lebanon.
The ISW noted a post on X by Axios Global Affairs Correspondent and CNN analyst Barak Ravid on June 20, 2026, stating that United States Central Command (CENTCOM) spokesman Captain Tim Hawkins said Iran has no control over the Strait of Hormuz and that ships are transiting the waterway with United States forces monitoring to ensure free movement.
Expanded Iraqi Militia Cells
According to a report from Reuters, which the ISW cited, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) created Iraqi militia cells reporting directly to the IRGC to conduct strikes on neighboring states with United States bases. Two Iraqi military officials, five local militia commanders, and a security official informed Reuters that three or four new cells of approximately ten elite Iraqi Shia fighters were responsible for at least seven drone attacks between April 20, 2026, and May 17, 2026, from within Iraq. The attacks targeted Kuwait’s Ali al Salem Airbase and the military terminal at Kuwait’s international airport, with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia intercepting two attacks each.
Reuters also reported that the new militia cells contain Islamic Resistance in Iraq members operating outside the coalition’s normal structure by reporting directly to the IRGC. The five militia commanders reported to Reuters that Iran formed these cells as part of a tactical shift by the IRGC to maintain regional reach at a time when its proxy networks and resources have been weakened. The Iraqi sources believe the purpose of the cells is to reduce pressure from the United States on the Iraqi federal government as it works to disarm Iranian-backed Iraqi militias and maintain plausible deniability.
The ISW further noted, based on the Reuters report, that a retired Iraqi army general said they are a smaller and more controlled group that is more ideologically hardened.
National Security Leadership: Creating A Foundation of Compliance
The ISW cited Shafaq reporting that Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaydi has been reshaping its national security leadership between June 18, 2026, and June 20, 2026, by appointing Accountability and Justice Commission (AJC) head Mohammad al Badri to chief of the National Security Service (NSS). Zaydi also replaced Iranian-backed Badr Organization-affiliated Qasem al Araji with Qasem al Aboudi as National Security Adviser, with Shafaq adding that Araji has been appointed as Zaydi’s special security adviser.
The ISW noted another report from Shafaq that indicated Zaydi appointed Nizar Nasser, head of the Central Bank of Iraq Anti-Money Laundering and Counter-Terrorism Financing Office, as the new Central Bank of Iraq governor on June 18, 2026, replacing Ali Al-Allaq. A report from June 19, 2026, by Shafaq, cited by the ISW, outlined an unnamed United States official speaking with Iraqi media about an agreement to cooperate with the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) to put an end to money laundering, terrorist financing, and corruption with Iraq being noted to make a direct pledge to work together to improve the efficacy of it’s anti-money laundering and counter-terrist financing measures.
